ECONOMICS

 

 

Publication Record

 

Alami, T. 1999. Cointegration analysis of dollarization in Egypt. Economic Research Forum for the Arab Countries, Iran and Turkey ,working paper 9923.

———. 2000. An econometric investigation of dollarization in Egypt. Journal of Development and Economic Policies 2:8–23.

———. 2001. Variance decomposition analysis of the demand. Journal of Economic Studies.

Hausmann, R., E. Stein, and U. Panizza. 2001. Original sin, passthrough, and fear of floating. Financial Vulnerability and the Exchange Rate Regime. The Emerging Markets Experience. MIT Press.

———. 2001. Why do countries float the way they float? Journal of Development Economics.

Panizza, U. 2001. Convergence in income inequality. Journal of Income Distribution.

———. 2001. Public-private wage differentials and institutional quality. Economia.

Panizza, U., E. Talvi, and E. Stein. 2001. Assessing dollarization: An application to Central American and Caribbean Countries. Dollarization. MIT Press.

 

 

 

Abstracts, Conferences, and Proceedings

 

Makdisi, S., and R. Sadaka. June 2001. Economics, civil war, and political instability: The case of Lebanon. Launching the World Bank Project on Case Studies of Civil Wars, Oslo, Norway.

Panizza, U. November 2000. Monetary and fiscal policies in emerging market countries. ECES Conference on Monetary Policy Options for Egypt, Cairo, Egypt.

———. December 2000. Spoiled bureaucrats and exploited women. Global Development Network 2000, Tokyo, Japan.

———. April 2001. The Strange Case of the Public Sector Wage Premium. Third Economia Panel Meeting, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.


 

Graduate Theses and Projects

 

Caracalla, H. 1999. Tax  reforms in the case of Lebanon. G. Sirhan.

 

El-Khayat, S. 2001. Developing the information technology sector in Lebanon: Action plan. T. Alami.

 

El-Khoury, M. May 2001. Fiscal decentralization in Lebanon: Lessons from other countries. G. Sirhan.

 

El-Mougharbel, R. 1999. Fiscal imbalances and adjustments in Lebanon. G. Sirhan.

 

El-Saghir, S. June 2001. International competitiveness of Lebanon in the light of the world trade organization agreements. G. Sirhan.

 

Kanaan, M., 1999. Intellectual property rights in the case of Lebanon. G. Sirhan.

 

Matta, E. 1999. Foreign direct investment in the MENA region: Case study of Libanpost. G. Sirhan.

 

Yazbeck, M. February 2001. Random walk vs. monetary approach to exchange rate determination: A focus on the euro/dollar exchange rate. T. Alami.

 

 

 

Research Projects

 

Capital flight from the Arab world: Estimates and econometric analysis

This study will analyze capital flight from a group of fourteen Arab countries, where capital flight refers to international capital movements, which respond to heightened pervasive risk that reflects the degree of domestic economic and political uncertainty, which is domestically undiversifiable. The study will discuss several empirical definitions of capital flight and will present estimates of capital flight for the sample over the period 1989-2000. Based on these estimates, this study will also present an econometric model on the determinants of capital flight from the Arab world. Estimating the volume and analyzing the determinants of capital flight from the Arab world constitutes a first step toward devising economic policies that are designed to secure, among other things, a reversal of capital flight. These policies are expected, not only to improve the external liability situation of a country, but also to promote economic growth. Alami, T.

Supported by URB
Completed or in progress at AUB

 

Dollarization vs. currency substitution in Egypt: Further evidence

This paper will attempt to distinguish, theoretically and empirically, between portfolio diversification and transaction motivations behind holding foreign money in Egypt. Modifying Cuddington's portfolio balance approach and using a battery of tests to address the time series property of the data, along with error-correction modeling, the Egyptian demands for domestic and foreign money are tested. The results indicate that there is a negative (positive) relationship between the expected rate of return on foreign money and the demand for domestic (foreign) money. The results provide further evidence furnished earlier by the author on the predominance of portfolio (dollarization) over transaction considerations (currency substitution) behind holding foreign money in Egypt. Submitted to Arab Economic Journal. Alami, T.

Completed or in progress at AUB

 

Reforming intellectual property rights regimes in developing countries: Economic implications and related public policies

The Uruguay Round has produced the most fundamental reform of the world trading system since the establishment of the GATT in 1947, testifying to a wider and deeper commitment to trade liberalization. The Uruguay Round went far beyond achievements from previous rounds in involving developing countries in the multinational trading systems and covering new aspects of trade, such as Trade-Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs).
The TRIPs agreement means that developing countries will no longer be able to ride on other countries' Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs), and may suffer short-term losses from TRIPs agreement, losses mitigated by the long phase-in period allowed under the Uruguay Round. In the long run, however, these countries should gain from stimulated local R&D efforts from accelerated rates of technical change and the development of their own knowledge-based industries. Our intent in this paper is to provide descriptions of the various IP regimes. We also will discuss how the amendment of intellectual property laws and enforcement procedures might affect economic activity in developing countries. We will propose public policies related to IPRs protection that could be used to maximize the benefits and minimize the costs of IPRs reforms. Submitted to The Emirates Center for Strategic Studies & Research. Alami, T. and M. Kanaan.

 

Completed or in progress at AUB

 

Intellectual property rights in Lebanon: Potential costs and benefits

Unlike other assets, intellectual property (IP) is a public good that requires extraordinary protection against unauthorized use. Despite significant disagreements over particular standards among the industrial countries, the IP issue is divided fundamentally along North-South Lines. Most patented products that make it to Southern markets are developed in the North. The North would profit from tighter patent procedures in the South, protecting northern firms against imitators in their export markets. By the same token, the South would like to pay as little as possible for these innovations, which is what lax patent protection achieves. In light of this conflict of interest, our intent is to provide an overview of the legal system in Lebanon, and the required administration and legal changes associated with adopting stronger IP laws. In addition, this paper will shed light on the various potential short-run costs of strengthening IPRs in Lebanon, as well as the forgone long-run benefits of FDI, technology transfer and growth if Lebanon chooses not to abide by international standards of protection. Submitted to Journal of Developing Areas. Alami, T., G. Sirhan, and  M. Kanaan.

Completed or in progress at AUB

 

Economics, civil war, and political instability: The case of Lebanon

The World Bank is one of several organizations which are currently carrying out research on the economics of the incidence and duration of civil wars. The literature in this area has been growing. The World Bank has just launched a case study project, in which the results of their general research will be evaluated in light of the experience of individual countries. Professor Makdisi and I recently attended two conferences in Sweden and Norway related to this subject. The second of these conferences, hosted by the World Bank, marked the launching of the bank's case study project. Makdisi, S. (PL), and R. Sadaka.

Supported by World Bank
Completed or in progress at AUB

 

Poverty and social mobility in Lebanon

This project uses principal component analysis to build a proxy for household wealth; the proxy is then used to describe poverty in Lebanon. Besides documenting poverty across age groups and across the various regions of the country, the project builds an index of social mobility and describes social mobility across income groups. Panizza, U. (PL), and M. Khoury.

Supported by AUB
Completed or in progress at AUB

 

Spoiled bureaucrats and exploited women: Public sector premium and gender gap in Latin America

This project uses a rich collection of household surveys to investigate the wage differential between the public and private sectors in 14 Latin American countries.  It also studies how the sector of employment affects the gender wage gap.  Contrary to what is commonly thought, it is found that, in the majority of Latin American countries, there is a premium associated with working in the public sector.  It is also found that the premium is often higher for women than for men, but that this difference does not compensate for the wide gender gap. It is concluded that Latin America is, by and large, still a region of "spoiled bureaucrats and exploited women." Panizza, U. (PL), and  Z. Qiang.

Completed or in progress at AUB, World Bank, and Inter-American Development Bank

 

Political particularism around the world

This project presents a new data set on electoral systems and outlines its potential uses in further research exploring the connections between electoral systems and economic outcomes.  The data set provides indicators of the degree to which individual politicians can further their careers by appealing to narrow geographic constituencies on the one hand, or party constituencies, on the other. Panizza, U., E. Stein, J. Seddon (PL), and  A. Gaviria.

Completed or in progress at AUB, Inter-American Development Bank, Stanford, and Fedesaroll

 

Carrots and sticks: Enforceable effort and the minimum wage

Rent controls lead to a deterioration in the quality of available rental housing. A minimum wage can have the same kind of effect in a labor market.  The quality of a job can be represented by the effort level required of the worker. I assume that firms can observe this level of effort perfectly and, within certain limits, control it. This may be particularly true of the jobs which would be affected by a minimum wage. I construct a model based on the assumptions mentioned above.  I study the properties of this model and use it to investigate the effects of a minimum wage. The classical notion that workers who keep their jobs under a minimum wage are always better off is found to be untrue. Further work is needed, including
formulating a long-run version of  the model, comparing it with alternative models, and using data to test its validity.   Sadaka, R.

Completed or in progress at AUB

 

Intellectual property rights in Lebanon: Potential costs and benefits

 

(With T. Alami and M. Kanaan). Submitted to Journal of Developing Areas. Sirhan, G.

 

 

Macroeconomic policies in selected Middle Eastern economies

This study involves an evaluation of the recent economic performance of selected Middle Eastern economies and analyses of the macroeconomic policies pursued, with special emphasis on stabilization policies, debt, and financing of development programs. A manuscript is under preparation. Sirhan, G.

Completed or in progress at AUB

 

Privatization in the Middle East: Impediments and prospects

The study focuses on reviewing the privatization experience of selected Middle Eastern countries, including a critical assessment of some of the economic programs and the criteria in evaluating the value of the economic entities which will be transferred to the private sector. This research is ongoing. Sirhan, G.

Completed or in progress at AUB