RESEARCH PROJECTS
An econometric investigation of dollarization in Egypt This
study will attempt to distinguish empirically between dollarization and
currency substitution in Egypt. Error correction modeling along with Johansen-Juselius
cointegration technique are used to establish the long-run relation between
the demand for foreign currency denominated deposits and expected changes
in exchange rate. Estimating a demand for money that takes into account
such a distinction is an important function of stabilization policies designed
to prevent monetary disturbances from affecting real output. T. Alami.
(Supported by URB.)
The recent status of OPEC: reserves, production, cost, and demand An analysis of demand for crude oil for members of OPEC and
a study of the effect of oil reserves on production. A supply equation
is estimated in order to explain the response of production to changes
in oil prices, taking into consideration the huge oil reserves of member
countries. Further, the U.S. demand equation is statistically estimated
using the maximum likelihood procedure and applying the test for cointegration.
A model is used to make some forecasts. I. Jabir.
The W test of uniformity (complete sample) This work focuses on deriving a statistic for testing the
null hypothesis. The derivation is based on some ideas used first by Shapiro
and Wilk in 1965 and the derived test statistic is compared in terms of
power with some other well known tests for uniformity. I. Jabir.
Real exchange rate targeting in a model with a production lag and exchange risk: some stylized facts This study will investigate the implications of real exchange
rate targeting for a number of key macroeconomic variables. It will also
attempt to explain some stylized facts of currency crises. J. Paschakis.
(Supported by URB.)
The advantages of targeting the real exchange rate Forthcoming in Global Financial Instability, ed. C.C.
Paraskevopolous et. al. Toronto, Canada: APF Press. J. Paschakis
and
C.C. Paraskevopoulos*.
Macroeconomic policies in selected Middle Eastern economies This study involves an evaluation of the recent economic performance
of selected Middle Eastern economies and analyses of the macroeconomic
policies pursued with special emphasis on stabilization, taxation, debt,
and financing of developrograms. G. Sirhan.
Alami, T., The demand for foreign money in Egypt: critical review and extension, Arab Economic Journal, 14 (3), 3-17, 1998. ———, Dollarization versus currency substitution: a portfolio balance mode. Journal of Policy Modeling, 3-11, 1999. Paschakis, J. and Smithin, J.*, Exchange risk and the supply-side
effects of real interest rate changes. Journal of Macroeconomics,
20, 703-720, Fall 1998.
ABSTRACTS,
PRESENTATIONS AND PROCEEDINGS
Sirhan, G., Paschakis, J., Ramadan, U., and Youssef, G., Seminar on
the Asian crisis, economic management and emerging markets. Institute
of Money and Banking and the World Bank, American University of Beirut,
Beirut, Lebanon, 1999.
Youssef, G., Conference on Privatization in Lebanon,
Center for Lebanese Studies, Blenheim Palace, Woodstock, England, March
1999.
———, Conference on The Socio-Economic Crisis in Lebanon, Consulting Center for Studies and Documentation, Marriott Hotel, Beirut, Lebanon, February 1999. ———, Seminar on Economic Recommendations for the
new Lebanese Government, Middle East Research and Studies (MERS),
Beirut, Lebanon, March 1999.
El-Mougharbel, R., Fiscal imbalances and adjustments in
Lebanon (1999). G. Sirhan.
Kanaan, M., Intellectual property rights in the case of Lebanon (1999). G. Sirhan. Matta, E., Foreign direct investment in the MENA region: case study of LibanPoste (1999). G. Sirhan. Rizk, R., Lebanon and the European Union Mediterranean Trade
Initiative: adjusting to a new fiscal reality (1998). G. Sirhan.
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